EUR / USD. February 26th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The key event of the day: Jerome Powell's speech

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 114.7541

The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, February 26, is moving upwards with great difficulty. However, in general, instrument volatility has been low in recent days, and important macroeconomic data have not been available to traders. There will not be a single important report published in the eurozone and the States today, but today Jerome Powell will give a speech in Congress. The head of the Fed will announce a report on the topic of economics and monetary policy, which is what excites and interests traders most of all. Thus, there are some hopes for increased activity today. The market participants are mainly interested in questions whether there will be a rise in the key rate this year and will the Fed unload its own balance sheet? The topic of inflation in the United States, the trade war and China, and its impact on the economy of the States - will also interest traders. What to expect from the speech of Powell? We believe that if the market receives unambiguous signals, there may be no rate hike this year or that the Fed is ready to complete a program to sell assets on its balance sheet after the QE program, this could put pressure on the US dollar. Otherwise, since Powell has no reason to abruptly change the rhetoric to "hawkish", no reaction to his speech may follow.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues the weak upward movement. Therefore, formally long positions are now relevant, but the pair is still a big problem with overcoming the level of 1.1365, which can be clearly seen on the chart.

Short positions can be considered after the price is fixed below the moving average. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -