By the end of the last trading week , the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 111 points, drawing a wide amplitude. But according to the result, it still stayed within the previous range. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a rapprochement with the psychological level of 1.3000, but the attempt to break it was unsuccessful. As a result, we returned to the confines of the cluster, , slightly expanding the boundaries of 1.3000 / 1.3100. On the other hand, the news background had a number of statements about Brexit. We begin with the fact that the expected vote in the British Parliament on February 27 on the so-called "Plan B" will be postponed until March 12, as Theresa May said the other day, referring to further negotiations with the EU. At the same time, the British government is considering the possibility of postponing the withdrawal from the EU by 2 months. The cabinet believes that two months is enough to bring the situation out of the impasse in which it is now. If we go back to reality, what prevented the government from 2016 from preventing such an impasse that exists now, is that all these transfers are just clean water. In Europe, they are already thinking about transferring Brexit to 2021. Naturally, this kind of delay in leaving Britain from the EU will become possible only if London itself asks for it.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any statistics. However there will be a speech by the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, who will talk about the reality again, removing the very water that Theresa May likes to provide.
13:00 MSK Speech by the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote comes close to the upper limit of the cumulative level of 1,3100, leaving behind a fairly steady move from the level of 1.3000. It is still early to talk about the breakdown of the upper boundary, since the quotation is still in the boundary of the cluster. In turn, traders closely analyze the price behavior near the value of 1.3000. On the subject of the breakdown, placing pending orders are considered.
Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3115, with the prospect of a move to 1.3200.
- We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing lower than 1.3000, with a prospect of 1.2950 (the first point).
As you can see, the recommendations remain the same.
Analyzing the different sector of time frames (TF), we see that there is an upward interest in the short, intraday and medium term. It should be understood that as long as the quotation is within the 1.3000 / 1.3000 cluster, indicators on smaller TFs can change arbitrarily.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 25 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 45 points. In the event of a breakthrough of a particular cluster boundary, we will see a sharp surge in volatility. Otherwise, the volatility will remain within the framework of the previous cluster.
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range LevelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com