EUR / USD. March 4th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Dollar under slight pressure due to weak statistics

4 hour time frame


Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -72.7924

On Monday (March 4), the currency pair EUR / USD turned out to be near the moving average line once again. On Friday, there were attempts to resume the upward movement, however, the failed macroeconomic statistics from the States and the European Union prevented traders from making a common decision. In the euro zone, a preliminary value for February was published. The CPI unexpectedly accelerated to 1.5%, but overall, this value remains extremely low. On the contrary, core inflation slowed down to 1.0%. And in the United States, the market manufacturing business index fell to 53.0, and the ISM index to 54.2. Although, in general, these values remain in the "green" zone, a negative trend is still visible to the naked eye. ISM index of gradual acceleration of inflation also turned out to be worse than market expectations, while consumer confidence index did not reach experts' forecasts. In such conditions, it would be logical to see a decline in the US dollar, however, the euro is now also under pressure from the market. Moreover, traders simply do not believe in a serious strengthening of the euro, and the US economy still looks much stronger and more stable than the EU economy. For today, the calendar of macroeconomic events of the countries of interest is absolutely empty to us.Therefore, one should not expect an increase in volatility.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

As indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator, the EUR / USD currency pair has begun a new round of correction. Thus, it will be possible to open new longs after turning this indicator to the top with the target of 1.1414.

Sell orders can be viewed after the price is fixed below the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture, it should also be taken into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -