EUR / USD. March 7th Trading system "Regression Channels". GDP and the results of the ECB meeting may cause additional pressure

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -141.4935

The currency pair EUR / USD on Thursday, March 7, having completed Murray's level of "1/8" - 1.1292, bounced off of it and started an upward correction to the moving average line. For the euro, an important day has come. Today will be the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting. There is no doubt that the regulator will not implement any changes in monetary policy, but phrases may be heard at a press conference that will help you to understand in what direction the ECB will look in the coming months. The main question that concerns all traders will be whether it is necessary to stimulate the economy, launch the LTRO program and postpone the deadlines for raising the key interest rate? If so, then the European currency may again be under pressure in tandem with the US dollar. Recall that this year the Fed may raise the key rate two more times. Although at the beginning of the year some representatives of the American regulator gave reason to doubt the implementation of these plans. Nevertheless, in America we are talking about a possible rate increase after it has been raised several times already. In the European Union, there is no question of raising the rate, and today it may be stated that it is necessary to "help" the economy. This imbalance leaves the euro with no long-term prospects for strengthening. Also today, there will be a report on GDP for the fourth quarter.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has started a weak correction. Therefore, it is now recommended to wait for its completion, that is, Heikin Ashi's reversal down, and then resume trading for a fall with targets of 1.1292 and 1.1250.

Once again, the buy positions can be considered after the price is fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will again change to ascending, and the first target for the long positions will be 1.1414.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -