Forecast for GBP / USD pair on March 12, 2019

The British pound rose by 175 points yesterday with little or no reason, just in anticipation of today's Brexit vote in parliament. Moreover, the expectations of its outcome cannot be called optimistic, on the contrary, the majority of political scientists suggest a negative decision on the current issue of the Irish border. Actually, the meaning of the series of voting can be reduced to the fact that the date of the country's withdrawal from the EU is postponed to a later date. As far as it may be optimistic about the impact on the pound, it is doubtful since at the moment the British currency does not look oversold. Technical equilibrium of EUR/GBP pair can be determined approximately at a price of 0.8300, which is 2.6% lower than the current value but this deviation is quite moderate, even in small fluctuations. In other words, growth of the GBP/USD pair is possible to the MACD line of 1.3400 on the weekly chart. But in this case, a double price divergence with the Marlin oscillator on a daily basis will be formed, which warns of the short-term growth that is taking place.


If today's vote on the "improved" deal fails, then tomorrow the parliamentarians will vote on the question to "Leave the UK out of the EU without a deal." On Thursday, the question is "to postpone or not the Brexit date" and it seems that delaying the date X now will satisfy everyone, which is evident even in the wording of the questions.

Hence, in the main scenario, we are waiting for the failure of today's vote, turning the pound off the MACD line with a target of 1.2930 on the four-hour chart. A positive voting outcome will send the price to 1.3400 from where we look to the reversal signals of the indicators. Voting will be in the evening.



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