Overview of the foreign exchange market on 03/29/2019

Apparently, investors are so worried about what might happen in the House of Commons today that they don't see what is happening with the American economy; no matter how late the epiphany was too painful. After all, the final data on the GDP of the United States for the fourth quarter turned out to be much worse, not only from preliminary estimates but also from the most pessimistic forecasts. Quarterly economic growth slowed from 3.4% to 2.2%, despite the fact that they expected a slowdown to 2.4%, and a preliminary assessment showed a slowdown to 2.6%. Although looking at the annual data instead of the quarterly data, the rate of economic growth remained at the level of 3.0%. Nevertheless, the quarterly growth rate has already slowed down two quarters in a row and the sustained annual rate was explained by the accumulated result of the second quarter of 2018, which means soon we will see a slowdown and annual growth rates. It cannot be said that the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits pleased investors since it increased by 8 thousand. At the same time, if the number of initial applications decreased by 5 thousand, the number of repeated ones increased by 13 thousand but repeated applications are a more important indicator, as reflect the duration of unemployment. Hence, frankly, American statistics clearly demonstrate that "America has already become great," and is so tired of it that it is time to breathe. But more precisely, repeated applications are a more important indicator, as they reflect the duration of unemployment. Thus, American statistics clearly demonstrate that "America has already become great" and they are so tired of it that it is time to breathe.


Today, no one will look at any macroeconomic data, especially since today data is only available for the UK. All attention will be focused only on voting in the House of Commons, which will mark the finish line in the whole epic with Brexit. Today is the last day when London can decide how future events will develop. Europe has already announced that there will be no more negotiations on this issue and the UK needs to decide for itself what it wants. She wants something a lot but you have to be contented with what you have despite everything. Hence, if the House of Commons gets rejected for the third time today regarding the agreement (which does not suit it on almost all points) then the United Kingdom must leave the European Union with deals on April 12 without any "preliminary testing" in the form of a transitional period. If the people's elects of her majesty's subjects still accept the subjugation agreement, then the exit will take place on May 22. Moreover, the separation is not so hard with the transitional period.

But if you look at the essence of the problem, the agreement without it for the economy of the United Kingdom is the same since the deal does not have a single word about such an interesting topic. Just promises and declarations of intent instead. But that won't worry anyone today. Everyone is concerned about only one question: is it a "hard" or "soft" option of divorce?


The voting results will have a strong impact on the single European currency, which can not stand aside from such epochal events. If the House of Commons votes in favor of the agreement, then general optimism will push the single European currency upward and even the area of 1.1275 to 1.1300 is more likely to be an intermediate stop. If the parliamentarians reject the proposed agreement for the third time, then it is worth waiting for the decline to 1.1150.


As mentioned above, the GDP data from the UK for the fourth quarter was released, which should confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. But no one will pay attention to this. Only the voting results in the House of Commons interest market participants. And if the parliamentarians finally agree with Theresa May's position and accept the agreement, the pound will rapidly grow to 1.3200 and more. Otherwise, a reduction to 1.2950 and 1.2975 does not seem so impossible.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com